Summer Games...Market Gains?
When investors take leave of their senses and start mining data for arcane and offbeat ways to predict the economy and the markets, there’s no telling where they will end up. With our attention focused on the Olympics, we thought we would explore what impact the summer games might have for stock investors. It’s not so farfetched to think that a swelling of national pride after a stellar Olympic performance might translate to greater confidence, optimism and positive expectations, expanding P/E ratios and attractive investment returns. To put us in the right frame of mind, here are some other unusual approaches and market barometers, for those who wish to move beyond simple fundamentals.
“Keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground.”
First, let’s look to the heavens. There are an astounding number of websites, blogs and investment pundits who use astrology to analyze and predict stock market patterns. This approach is taken quite seriously by many global investors, whose philosophy may include a more contemporary reference to astrological factors than mainstream western thought. One website, http://money.rediff.com/tools/astrology, specifically relates stock and financial markets to far eastern astrology; while another, http://astrologyandthemarkets.blogspot.com, offers neophytes some online instruction in financial astrology as well.
"Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."
The Super Bowl indicator is based on results from the old AFL and NFL teams. The numbers suggest that a win from an AFL (now AFC) team will foretell a decline in the stock market for the year ahead, and a win from an NFC team the opposite, a positive year. In the 22 years the NFC has won the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 15%. In the 21 years the AFC has won, the average return has been 7%. According to Investopedia, the indicator has an over 80% accuracy rate, but was profoundly wrong in 2008, when despite a win by the New York Giants, the market had one of its worst years since the Great Depression.
“Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods. “
H. L. Mencken
This is a presidential election year, and election years, at least since 1939, have been pretty good times to be in the market. In fact, between 1939 and 2008, the Dow never posted a loss during an election year. The best election year performance was back in 1928 when Herbert Hoover swept into office; that year, the market shot up 48.2 %. The worst, in 2008, saw a decline of 33.8%.
“Legs and Lipstick”
Do long legs lead to better stock markets? So says the “hemline indicator.” When skirts get longer it’s time to sell, according to this approach, and when stock markets are good, skirts tends to rise. This has some basis in historical fact, although it may be more of a contrarian indicator, since by the time hemlines have climbed and times are good, investors may want to consider selling. Alas, hemlines can’t rise forever.
Leonard Lauder, the late chairman of Estee Lauder, noticed that when the economy was poor, women treated themselves to small and relatively inexpensive indulgences such as new lipstick. Rising lipstick sales, in fact, are often a precursor of more challenging economic times ahead. According to Investopedia, in the months following September 11, 2001, the sale of lipstick in the US nearly doubled.
“Finishing second in the Olympics gets you silver. Finishing second in politics gets you oblivion.”
Richard M. Nixon
Now, consider the Olympics indicator. From 1980 through 1996 (five summer Olympics games) the Dow gained during every Olympics game period. Since 2000, however, (three games) the index has fallen twice and gained only once. In the 12 months following the six summer Olympics games since 1988, the Dow gained 26.9% after 1988 (through December 30th of the following year,) 4.3% after 1992, 46.9% after 1996, and 4.5% after 2004. It declined twice, after the Sydney games in 2000, losing 1.6% and following Beijing in 2008, dropping 19%. Moreover, in these six Olympics competitions the US took the most medals in all but two years, 1988 and 1992. Since 1988 the US gained the most gold medals in three of six years, and the markets have gained in two of the three, 1996 and 2004, and fallen in one year, 2000.
The Bedminster Group